August in Kazakhstan’s financial market was marked by a reassessment of expectations. Macroeconomic indicators diverged, the national currency showed prolonged weakness, and the banking sector recorded local profit spikes amid an overall annual decline.
Macroeconomics and currency
Late summer macroeconomic conditions created new inputs for the financial sector. According to a National Bank macro survey, the base rate will remain at a double-digit level until at least 2026. The median analyst forecast settled at 16%.
At the same time, key economic barometers diverged: the Halyk Business Index hit a new high for the year, while the National Bank’s own business activity index slipped into negative territory. The difference in calculation methodologies highlighted uneven sector development.
Currency market dynamics added another factor. Late in the month, the tenge showed a prolonged decline. The national currency weakened against the US dollar for eight consecutive trading sessions, losing 1.07% and closing on August 27 at 464.90 tenge per dollar.
Banking sector
For second-tier banks, August was a time to review seven-month results, which showed a cooling in overall profit generation. From January to July 2026, Kazakhstan's banks earned 1.396 trillion tenge. This result was 14.9% lower than the same period last year.
Within this trend, strong local dynamics emerged. July saw a sharp spike: the sector’s total net profit for a single month reached 200.9 billion tenge, exceeding June results by 26%. Amid this volatility, the balance of power among the largest players shifted: Freedom Bank increased its metrics and displaced ForteBank from Kazakhstan’s top five most profitable banks.
Exchange infrastructure
Kazakhstan’s stock exchanges focused on instrument diversification in August. A notable structural decision was the suspension of trading in bonds of telecom operators Kcell and Kazakhtelecom on the AIX exchange. The pause was required to convert the bonds' face value from tenge to Chinese yuan and change the yield structure from a floating coupon rate to a fixed one.
At the same time, the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) expanded access to international assets. Starting September 1, Teniz Capital Investment Banking received market maker status for shares of US corporations Broadcom Inc. and California Resources Corporation.
Beyond classic instruments, KASE began working on a technological infrastructure update. The exchange held talks with Ant Digital Technologies, a division of the Chinese fintech giant. The parties discussed digital asset development and the implementation of new financial technologies.
What to watch
- How expectations of a 16% base rate will affect lending rates in the second half of the year.
- Whether the conversion of Kcell and Kazakhtelecom bonds into yuan will set a precedent for other issuers.
- Whether Freedom Bank can secure its spot in the top five by profit, or if the autumn months will return the previous leader configuration.
- Whether the divergence in business activity indexes will lead the regulator to revise its approaches to assessing the economy.
