Kazakhstan’s baseline bank financing structure is shifting. Business lending is growing at an accelerated pace, while consumer loans show signs of a steady cooldown. According to the National Bank, recent regulatory measures are delivering their intended macroeconomic effect, maintaining overall credit availability for the economy.
Corporate Sector: Volume Growth and Structural Shifts
Over the past 12 months, Kazakhstani entrepreneurs secured 22 trillion tenge in bank loans, a 16.8% increase over the same period last year. As of July 1, 2026, the total corporate loan portfolio expanded by 17.1%.
Small and medium-sized businesses are driving this growth. Finteqstan previously reported that SME lending in Kazakhstan grew by 29.6% over the year. This trend now reflects across the entire market structure: SMEs and individual entrepreneurs account for 69% of corporate lending.
Qualitative structural changes are also occurring within the business segment. As Kapital.kz reports citing market data, the average loan application size for large businesses jumped by 80%. Simultaneously, the share of small businesses in new corporate loan issuances dropped to 38.4%.
National Bank Deputy Chairman Akylzhan Baimagambetov attributes the positive corporate lending dynamics to several factors: high enterprise demand, reciprocal bank activity, state support programs, and targeted regulatory incentives.
Retail Lending: Managed Cooling
Against the backdrop of a booming corporate portfolio, the retail segment is steadily slowing. Total loans to individuals grew by 14.5%, with unsecured loans adding 9.4%. Statistics show new retail loan issuances fell by 4.4% in the first quarter. Tighter financial conditions and a general decline in consumer solvency pressured retail demand.
The National Bank emphasizes that this consumer lending slowdown is intentional—a direct result of previous micro- and macroprudential measures. The regulator’s primary goal is to keep financing accessible for the public while strictly preventing excessive risk accumulation and critical over-indebtedness.
Borrower Assessment Mechanics: DSTI and DTI
To accurately assess real debt burdens and manage risks, the National Bank split its monitoring system into two independent metrics operating at different stages of the credit cycle.
The debt service-to-income (DSTI) ratio remains the primary hard filter for loan approvals. It measures the portion of a client’s monthly income required to service all active loans. The legal DSTI limit remains capped at 50%. If a new payment pushes the borrower over this threshold, the bank automatically denies the loan.
The regulator also modified how it monitors the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio. This metric reflects a person’s total debt relative to their aggregate annual earnings. The calculation includes all outstanding bank loans and microloans, including the newly requested funds. Banks previously tracked DTI across the entire portfolio, but they now conduct deep analysis by specific loan types: auto loans, mortgages, and unsecured consumer loans.
Unlike DSTI, the DTI ratio currently has no set limits. The regulator uses this tool strictly to collect market data and monitor segment trends. At this stage, it does not affect a bank’s decision to approve a specific application.
Stricter Income Verification
Having multiple active loans or installment plans does not automatically disqualify a client from receiving new funds. The total monthly payment amount and the borrower’s proven ability to service the debt play the decisive role.
The list of approved methods for determining citizen income has not changed this year, but the procedure itself is stricter. Banks can still count regular bank card deposits, but they must verify these transactions more thoroughly. Specifically, transfers between a citizen’s own accounts (such as moving funds from a deposit to a card) and any borrowed funds are strictly excluded from income calculations.
Why It Matters
The National Bank considers its current macroprudential tools sufficient to manage identified financial sector risks. Strict retail borrower assessment requirements are delivering the desired effect, restricting issuances to clients who already spend half their income on debt repayment.
According to the National Bank, current regulatory limits are helping redistribute credit resources from consumption to productive activity financing.
What’s Next
Detailed DTI monitoring by loan type gives the regulator a clear picture of where hidden risks are accumulating in the retail sector. While this metric does not currently affect loan approvals, the collected data could form the basis for future macroprudential decisions if the National Bank detects a dangerous spike in the public’s total debt-to-annual-income ratio. For now, banks are shifting their focus toward business, where average check sizes are growing and state programs support financing needs.