The catalyst
On November 11, 2026, the Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) published a review of the banking sector for the first nine months. From January to September, banks issued 31.9 trillion tenge in new loans. This is 7.1% more than in the same period last year. The document’s main takeaway: the market structure has changed noticeably. Retail lending is shrinking, while the corporate sector is absorbing all net growth.
What the data shows
According to the AFK, business lending grew by 18%. Medium (+37.8%) and small (+21%) enterprises borrowed the most actively. As a result, the business share in new loans increased from 51% to 56.2%.
Three industries generated the main demand, accounting for 83% of the growth in corporate loans:
- construction (+62.7%);
- industry (+20.4%);
- trade (+13.3%).
Long-term business lending grew faster than short-term lending—20.4% versus 16.7%.
The retail segment showed the opposite dynamic. Total loans to the public fell by 4.3%. The drop was driven by a 6.7% decline in consumer lending, while mortgages maintained a 9.6% growth rate.
What this means for the market
According to association analysts, the shift toward corporate lending is happening amid regulatory restrictions in retail. The AFK notes that consumer demand is weakening and banks are applying more cautious risk policies.
Asset quality remains stable. The share of non-performing loans (NPL 90+) stood at 3.9% at the beginning of October, compared to 3.6% at the start of the year.
Banks’ net interest margin has dropped 48 basis points since the beginning of the year to 6.30%, as the cost of funding grew faster than asset yields. The banking sector’s net profit for the nine months fell 11.6% year over year to 1.8 trillion tenge.
Despite the profit decline, sector capital grew by 7.5% to 11.4 trillion tenge. In 2026, international agency S&P upgraded its BICRA industry risk assessment for the Kazakh banking sector from ‘7’ to ‘6’.