From January 1, 2027, Kazakhstani banks will begin to fully account for the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio when issuing car loans. This marks the end of a temporary monitoring period introduced by the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM).
What happened
The DTI ratio caps the share of monthly payments on all of a borrower's loans at 50% of their official income. Previously, the regulator granted relief for car lending, taking into account the collateralized nature of the product: a secured loan was considered to carry fewer risks. In early 2025, this relaxation was even extended to the purchase of used cars.
Now, this period is coming to an end. As ARDFM Chairperson Madina Abylkassymova reported, the monitoring period for DTI compliance on car loans concludes in 2026, and standard requirements will apply to them starting next year.
The market has already begun to react to the supervisory attention. According to LS, in April, the ARDFM recorded a significant decline in the car lending segment—down 26.6% compared to the same period last year.
Country and market
The return of the DTI ratio will directly affect loan accessibility. Economist and author of the Tengenomika channel Ruslan Sultanov predicts a cooling of the market. According to his assessment, banks will start rejecting clients with borderline solvency more frequently, demanding a larger down payment, or approving smaller amounts. Primarily, the restrictions will affect borrowers with existing loans or unconfirmed income.
The regulator's attention to the segment is justified. According to the 2025 SREP risk assessment conducted by the ARDFM, a high concentration of car loans is observed in the retail portfolios of several banks.
Sultanov notes that the presence of collateral does not guarantee the bank full protection. A car depreciates quickly, and in the event of a borrower default, selling the vehicle on the secondary market may not cover the remaining debt. Non-payment risks increase due to the owner's associated expenses: insurance, taxes, repairs, and fuel costs.
Why it matters
For the financial sector, this is a normalization of regulation following a temporary easing, rather than an attempt to artificially restrict demand.
Sultanov believes that the most effective approach for the market will be the application of targeted macroprudential tools. In addition to fully accounting for the DTI ratio, banks will be forced to use more conservative collateral valuation, limit loan terms, and differentiate requirements based on a specific client's risk profile.
What's next
The rapid growth of car lending stimulates consumer demand but increases the overall debt burden of the population. Tightening the rules will slow down the issuance of the popular product, while simultaneously improving the quality of bank portfolios by cutting off the most risky clients.
For banks, this is a planned transition from expanding retail portfolios to strict control over collateral quality amid a possible price correction in the secondary car market.